Automatic shoreline detection and future prediction: A case study on Puri coast, Bay of Bengal, India

Abstract

Shoreline prediction models have the capability of integrating geoinformatics within them. The present study is conducted on the 142 km-long coastline of Puri district, India. It aims to analyze the change in coastline due to erosion/accretion and provide best estimate of future shoreline positions based on past shorelines. A simple mathematical model, End Point Rate (EPR), has been used to calculate the rate of change of shoreline and its future positions, based on empirical observations. The erosional/accretional scenario has also been analysed by delineating the shoreline from Landsat imageries of 1972, 2001 and 2010. It is found that the northern part of Puri, in the vicinity of Kushabhadra estuary and Chandrabhaga beach undergo high rates of erosion. Based on the delineated shoreline, the short term (2015) and long term (2025) shoreline positions have been predicted.