A Question of Trust: Dynamics of the Perceived Uncertainty–Trust Dilemma With Artificial Intelligence in Strategy Process Initiation

Abstract

Strategists who must identify issues in uncertain environments while being cognitively constrained can increasingly rely on artificial intelligence to manage uncertainty. The potential for AI to be incorporated into strategy processes has led to a debate about the evolving collaborative relationship between strategists and AI. We explore the dynamic interaction between strategists' trust in AI and their perception of uncertainty during the initial phase of strategy processes. Therefore, we develop a recursive process model that captures the dynamics of strategists' trust in AI and so AI's impact on how strategists perceive uncertainty. We show that increased trust in AI can reduce strategists' perceived uncertainty and influence their issue-scanning and issue-interpretation behaviors. However, this decreased perceived uncertainty may lead to an overreliance on AI, introducing a perceived uncertainty–trust dilemma: Firms might become increasingly vulnerable to environmental issues that AI fails to detect. In contrast, decreased trust in AI may heighten a strategists' perception of uncertainty and reduce their reliance on AI, but at the expense of AI's computational strengths. We contribute by demonstrating the neglected relationship between strategists' trust in AI, their perceived uncertainty, and their collective impact on strategists' behavior and outcomes during the initial phase of strategy processes.