Winning Tracker: A New Model for Real-time Winning Prediction in MOBA Games

Abstract

With an increasing popularity, Multiplayer Online Battle Arena (MOBA) games where two opposing teams compete against each other, have played a major role in E-sports tournaments. Among game analysis, real-time winning prediction is an important but challenging problem, which is mainly due to the complicated coupling of the overall Confrontation1, the excessive noise of the player's Movement, and unclear optimization goals. Existing research is difficult to solve this problem in a dynamic, comprehensive and systematic way. In this study, we design a unified framework, namely Winning Tracker (WT), for solving this problem. Specifically, offense and defense extractors are developed to extract the Confrontation of both sides. A well-designed trajectory representation algorithm is applied to extracting individual's Movement information. Moreover, we design a hierarchical attention mechanism to capture team-level strategies and facilitate the interpretability of the framework. To optimize accurately, we adopt a multi-task learning method to design short-term and long-term goals, which are used to represent immediate state and make end-state prediction respectively. Intensive experiments on a real-world data set demonstrate that our proposed method WT outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms. Furthermore, our work has been practically deployed in real MOBA games, and provided case studies reflecting its outstanding commercial value.