Afghanistan: Alternative Futures and Their Implications

Abstract

Existing Environment in Afghanistan Immediately following the appalling 11 September 2001 attacks, the United States initiated a campaign in Afghanistan aimed at eliminating the al Qaeda extremists who planned and conducted the attack and replacing the Taliban government that provided a sanctuary for al Qaeda activities.1 After almost 10 years, the Afghan War is becoming increasingly unpopular with the American public and is losing political support in the United States and the international community.2 Responding to a deteriorating strategic environment in Afghanistan and a growing US public opposition to the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, President Obama announced a "surge" and "exit plan" for Afghanistan.3 The new strategy creates conditions for an acceptable transition; implements a civilian surge that institutes positive civic reforms; and helps to shape an effective partnership with Pakistan in an effort to defeat insurgent forces operating in the Afghan-Pakistan border areas.4 Since the decision to increase the number of US military forces and to improve civil-support activities, there have been numerous accomplishments: an increase in the training and education of Afghan security forces, additional funding for internal development projects, and, most importantly, wresting major areas from Taliban control.5 Still, many daunting challenges remain, including mollifying the competing interests of major external stakeholders. [...] the United States policy makers need to think through the possible consequences of a precipitous withdrawal and its impact on both Afghanistan and the region, while preparing possible strategies that would include a plan to marshal and sustain the necessary public and political support to implement the various options.