Collision probability through time integration implementation and operational results

Abstract

In 2012, V.T. Coppola proposed a new formulation for the computation of the probability of collision between two satellites based on a time-integration of the probability density flux entering the surface the hard body radius sphere. This formulation takes into account the evolution of the covariance over time, as well as the velocity uncertainty. It should therefore give access to a more realistic probability of collision, especially for low-velocity encounters. This paper describes the work currently done at CNES on the method, which was tested on more than 28 000 generated cases, in addition to a selection of past collision risks. The paper highlights several issues encountered during the implementation of the method and focuses on a few conjunctions of interest.