Diagnosing the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in density space is critical in warmer climates

Abstract

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays a crucial role in shaping the global climate system by redistributing heat and influencing large-scale climate patterns. Utilizing the AWI-CM3 model, we investigate the AMOC sensitivity to an abrupt climate change scenario (abrupt-4xCO2) with respect to pre-industrial climate (PI), comparing the AMOC diagnosed in depth (z-AMOC) and density (ρ-AMOC) space. Water mass transformations are assessed to analyze the impact of background climate on surface-forced and interior-mixing-induced transformations. We find that both the location and magnitude of AMOC maximum are directly affected by the framework choice. In PI, the ρ-AMOC maximum is substantially stronger than that of the z-AMOC, while at 26° N the two diagnostics are nearly equivalent. Consequently, the variability of the z-AMOC maximum correlates only with that at 26° N, reflecting isopycnal flattening into constant depth levels in the subpolar North Atlantic inherent to these diagnostics. Strong AMOC weakening is observed under 4xCO2 forcing in both frameworks until simulation year 75. Subsequently, both diagnostics reveal a weaker AMOC with an approximate strength of 7.1 Sv, although with z-AMOC displaying a slight recover towards the end of the simulation and ρ-AMOC oscillating steadily around 5 Sv. At 26° N, variability patterns remain comparable to PI, albeit with an additional ρ-AMOC weakening of approximately 2 Sv, indicating divergence between the representation of AMOC dynamics in the subtropical Atlantic within both frameworks in comparison to PI. The diagnostics in density space allow for the attribution of this further ρ-AMOC weakening to increased entrainment of fresher overflows from amplified GIN seas overturning and reduced deep convection in the Labrador and Irminger Seas. In contrast, the diagnostics in depth space only reveals reduced downwelling around the southwestern Greenland coast and along the path of the Gulf Stream, features that are more challenging to evaluate against available observations. Thus, the comparison between z-AMOC and ρ-AMOC indicates that diagnosing the AMOC in density space provides more physically meaningful information regarding the state of the water mass transformations and their contribution to ocean circulation regimes across the entire Atlantic basin, not only the subpolar North Atlantic, and especially as the climate continues to warm. These findings emphasize the importance of diagnosing AMOC in density space to better understand water mass transformations, which are concealed in depth space and to capture AMOC variability in warmer climates, across all latitudes.