Copula-based joint probability analysis of compound floods from rainstorm and typhoon surge: A case study of Jiangsu Coastal Areas, China

Abstract

Coastal areas are vulnerable to floods caused by rainstorms and typhoons. It is necessary to ascertain the risk of floods caused by both of these extreme weather events. A conceptual risk model is proposed to evaluate the rainstorm risk, typhoon surge risk, and the compound risk in the coastal areas of Jiangsu Province during the period of 1960-2012. The results of the model show that the typhoon surge risk in the study region is greater than the rainstorm risk. Three Archimedean copulas were used to fit the joint probability distributions of the compound events. The Frank copula and the Gumbel copula proved to be the best-fitting joint distribution function for the Huaibei plain district and the Lixiahe district, respectively. The probability of the extreme compound events not happening is less than 90% in the study region. This means that the flood risk is mainly subject to the encounter of a low-level rainstorm and a low-level typhoon surge. The study shows that the northern region of Jiangsu Province is more vulnerable to the compound risk, and that we should pay more attention to the floods caused by the compound events of rainstorm and typhoon surge.