Dynamic Spatial Model of Settlement Land in Tsunami-Prone Areas, Carita District, Banten

Abstract

Carita District, Banten was one of the districts affected by the tsunami in the Sunda Strait in 2018. With 2.668 hectares of land cover changing mainly in agriculture and urban areas. The land cover affected by the tsunami in the Carita Area consists of horticulture (24.11 ha), rice fields (2.70 ha) and buildings (4.91 ha). Residential areas, infrastructure and service sectors, especially tourism are also affected. According to the Carita District 2022-2042 RDTR (Detailed Spatial Plan), Carita District is still a tsunami-prone area. The purpose of this research is to provide a residential area forecast with spatial models, patterns, and directions for residential area development in the Carita region over the next 20 years. The method used in this research uses a cellular automata algorithm and a dynamic spatial model that utilizes the results to obtain an analytic hierarchy process score from expertise in the Carita District. Based on the results of the analysis there is an increase in settlements of 697%, some of which expanded in the southern and northern areas of Carita District. The results of the simulations that have been carried out can be input for the Carita District government in the direction of land use development.