Clinical prediction rule for identifying older patients with toxigenic clostridioides difficile at the time of hospital admission

Abstract

Background: This study aimed to develop and validate a clinical prediction rule to screen older patients at risk of being toxigenic Clostridioides difficile carriers at the time of hospital admission. Methods: This retrospective case-control study was performed at a university-affiliated hospital. Active surveillance using a real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay for the toxin genes of C. difficile was conducted among older patients (≥ 65 years) upon admission to the Division of Infectious Diseases of our institution. This rule was drawn from a derivative cohort between October 2019 and April 2021 using a multivariable logistic regression model. Clinical predictability was evaluated in the validation cohort between May 2021 and October 2021. Results: Of 628 PCR screenings for toxigenic C. difficile carriage, 101 (16.1%) yielded positive findings. To establish clinical prediction rules in the derivation cohort, the formula was derived using significant predictors for toxigenic C. difficile carriage at admission, such as septic shock, connective tissue diseases, anemia, recent use of antibiotics, and recent use of proton-pump inhibitors. In the validation cohort, the sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of the prediction rule, based on a cut-off value of ≥ 0.45, were 78.3%, 70.8%, 29.5%, and 95.4%, respectively. Conclusion: This clinical prediction rule for identifying toxigenic C. difficile carriage at admission may facilitate the selective screening of high-risk groups. To implement it in a clinical setting, more patients from other medical institutions need to be prospectively examined.