AUKUS and Southeast Asia's Ontological Security Dilemma

Abstract

What does AUKUS mean for Southeast Asia? While some Southeast Asian countries are critical of the new pact, others appear to be more positive or, at least, neutral towards it. We argue that Southeast Asian responses to AUKUS are characterised by a new ontological security dilemma with three different characteristics. First, Southeast Asian countries—particularly Indonesia and Malaysia—face the dilemma of maintaining a balance of power and regional stability amid an environment of increasing engagement with extra-regional actors. A second dilemma relates to the region's need for security against extra-regional threats, primarily from China, which led several Southeast Asian countries—such as Singapore, Vietnam, and the Philippines—to support AUKUS, either explicitly or implicitly. Third is ASEAN's organisational dilemma of how to strategically utilise its regional frameworks to respond to AUKUS amid the divergent views of major Southeast Asian countries. We then address efforts to mitigate the regional security dilemma by reconsidering ASEAN regional frameworks and rethinking the role of the ASEAN chairman to deal with major regional security issues.