Cross-national proximity in online social network and protest diffusion: An event history analysis of Arab spring

Abstract

This study examines the role of online social network proximity in cross-national diffusion of offline protests. Drawn upon Valente's (1995) network diffusion model, the study operationalizes social network proximity-based protest exposure, using the international Facebook friendship share data. One year-long onsite protests during Arab Spring 2011 are examined using event history modeling. The findings offer evidence of an contemporaneous online network exposure effect on cross-national diffusion of protests. An expected lagged diffusion effect was not found, however. The paper presents an innovative approach to the scholarship of global protest diffusion and collective actions.