Provincial contributions analysis of the slowdown in the growth of china's industrial co2 emissions in the “new normal”

Abstract

The industrial sector has been the largest CO2 emitter in China. The purpose of this paper is to explore the reasons for the slowdown in the growth of industrial CO2 emissions (ICE) since China’s economy entered a new development model in 2012 – the “new normal”. First, we overviewed the ICE status in China from 2007 to 2017. Then, we utilized the Tapio model to analyze the decoupling relationship between ICE and industrial economy. Finally, the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) was used to explore the related driving factors of ICE change and the contributions of each province to China's ICE increase. The results showed that: (1) the growth rates of China's ICE were 41.34% and 6.7% in 2007-2012 and 2012-2017, respectively, a signal that the growth of ICE has significantly slowed down in the “new normal”. The spatial distribution in ICE has gradually evolved from high emissions in northern coastal regions and low emissions in other regions to high emissions in northern regions and low emissions in southern regions. In addition, the gap of ICE has gradually widened among provinces. (2) The decoupling elasticity between China's ICE and industrial economy decreased from 0.53 in 2007-2012 to 0.29 in 2012-2017. That may be related to a strong decoupling state in the central and southwestern provinces and the decline of the elasticity in the coastal provinces. (3) From 2007 to 2012, energy intensity was the main inhibiting factor in China’s ICE. From 2012 to 2017, industrial structure was the primary contributor to ICE reduction, followed by energy intensity. The central and eastern provinces with large-scale industrial economies, such as Hebei, Sichuan, Hubei, and Shandong, have significantly reduced the increment of ICE, making the main contribution to the decline in the growth rate of China’s ICE.