Trade Patterns and Green Transformation of Fats and Oils in BRICS: Supply Chain Resilience and Sustainability Perspectives

Abstract

The fats and oils industry is central to food security, industrial production, and bioenergy, but it is increasingly challenged by supply chain risks and environmental pressures. With the expansion of BRICS to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, this group of countries now accounts for nearly half of global oilseed production and consumption and more than 40% of vegetable oil imports. Using panel data on production, consumption, and trade flows, this paper analyzes the evolving trade patterns of fats and oils in BRICS countries and evaluates the potential for a green transformation of the sector. Results show that BRICS exhibits strong trade complementarities: agricultural exporters such as Brazil and Argentina complement resource-driven economies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, while China plays a central role as a consumer and logistics hub. However, structural dependence on soybeans and palm oil, along with environmental risks such as deforestation and water stress, pose challenges to sustainable supply chain security. Econometric analysis confirms that population growth and investment freedom are key drivers of trade expansion, while high labor shares reflect inefficiencies in industrial restructuring. The study contributes to logistics and service science by highlighting the importance of diversified sourcing, resilient trade corridors, and digitalized supply chain monitoring in securing fats and oils trade. Policy recommendations include strengthening green technology transfer, promoting multimodal logistics hubs, and cultivating demand for certified sustainable oils in BRICS markets to balance trade growth with ecological sustainability.