Assessment of near-term runoffresponse at a river basin scale in central Vietnam using direct CMIP5 high-resolution model outputs

Abstract

Global warming is becoming more serious and causing changes in rainfall pattern and runoffregime in most river basins. Exploration of the changes will help develop appropriate management and adaptation strategies. This study presents an assessment of changes in rainfall and runoffin the upper Thu Bon River basin in central Vietnam in the near-term (2026-2035) climate using direct Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) high-resolution model outputs. A nearly calibration-free parameter rainfall-runoffmodel was employed to explore the runoffresponse in the study basin. Most model simulations have detected greater decreases in the near-term runoffin the dry season compared with those of any preceding decades in the baseline (1979-2008) climate, though the rainfall in this period is expected to increase slightly. Meanwhile, monsoonal season flooding has the potential to become more severe, and Japanese models project further increase in the intensity of such extreme weather events. The results also indicate that the treatment of the model physical parameterization schemes tends to contribute more sensitivity to the future projections.