The chaotic time series of Indian monsoon rainfall and its prediction

Abstract

The time series of Indian summer monsoon rainfall for the period 1871-1989 has been analysed using the method of deterministic chaos. It is found that a strange attractor underlies the time series implying the existence of a prediction function. This function has been approximated by a second-degree polynomial, involving the rainfalls of the past seven years and the coefficients have been estimated by least squares fit. The interannual variations of actual and computed rainfalls have been presented for a comparative study. © 1992 Indian Academy of Sciences.