Impact of African Swine Fever Epidemic on the Cost Intensity of Pork Production in China

Abstract

China’s African swine fever (ASF) outbreak, which started in 2018, has had a huge and far-reaching impact on China’s hog industry, and it has not been completely eliminated so far. This article analyzes the impact of the ASF epidemic on the costs and technical efficiency of hog production in China based on data from the China Agricultural Product Cost–Benefit Compilation (2012–2021) using a stochastic frontier trans-log production function model. The results show that, after the outbreak of the ASF epidemic in China, feed costs, medical and epidemic prevention costs, and other costs of hog production in China increased significantly; the technical efficiency of China’s hog production decreased significantly; large-scale hog farms were the most responsive to and greatly affected by the ASF epidemic; and there are regional differences in the impact of the ASF epidemic on technical efficiency of hog production. Future policies should focus on strengthening the R&D investment and technology promotion capacity of hog production, developing moderate-scale farming, and enhancing regional cooperation to improve technical efficiency of hog production.