Russia’s war strategy: what Chechnya suggests for Ukraine

Abstract

While the decision to invade all of Ukraine and Russia’s atrocious behavior and disastrous performance in the war may seem surprising and even irrational, Russia has in fact followed patterns that it used in the recent past with the two Chechen wars of 1994–1996 and 1999–2009. In this article, we compare key similarities and differences in the two Russo-Chechen wars and the current war on Ukraine by analyzing three aspects of the wars: Russian political strategy in the territories, Russian military strategy and conduct, and the Russian state’s approach to war-related information and media campaigns. By drawing these comparisons, we hope to show how Russia’s past war strategies in Chechnya might shed light on outcomes in Ukraine. In addition, in showing the similarities between Russian actions in Chechnya and Ukraine we highlight the argument that Russia is treating Ukraine not as a sovereign state, but as a part of Russia.