Endemic and zoonotic cycles of cutaneous leishmaniasis depend on vector feeding preferences: An epidemiological model for Southeastern Mexico

Abstract

Introduction Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a neglected tropical disease caused by Leishma nia spp. parasites. It poses significant public health challenges among economically marginalized communities in endemic regions like Southeastern Mexico. Here, we developed a mathematical model to describe the transmission dynamics of CL in the Yucatan Peninsula region, focusing on two key sand fly vectors: Lutzomyia cruciata and Bichromomyia olmeca. Methods Transmission was modelled as frequency dependent with Susceptible-Infected dynamics for vectors and rodents, and Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Susceptible for humans, and accounts for the impact of available blood meals on vector popula tions. The model was parameterized from published literature for vector and reservoir growth rates and carrying capacities, transmission efficiency, and vector feeding preferences. Result The simulations highlight the importance of both vector species in CL transmission, with Lu. cruciata showing a higher preference for human blood, while Bi. olmeca is more frequently associated with rodents. Sensitivity and scenario analyses reveal that the system is highly sensitive to transmission rates and vector feeding preferences, suggesting that Bi. olmeca is necessary to maintain infection among reservoirs, while Lu. cruciata contributes to zoonotic transmission. Conclusions Overall, we emphasize that vector species have different roles on leishmaniasis epidemiology due to feeding preferences. Therefore, roviding funding to improve basic knowledge into the epidemiology of this disease, will improve our understand ing of its dynamics. Once achieved, policymakers can develop targeted interventions to reduce CL incidence in affected regions to improve the outcomes of public health interventions.