Evaluating the ecological vulnerability and adaptive capacity of forest vegetation under climate stress across Nepal’s mountain landscapes

Abstract

Central Himalayan mountain forests in Nepal are vital for regulating regional climate, conserving biodiversity, and sustaining ecohydrological systems that support millions in mountain and downstream areas. However, they face increasing threats from accelerated climate change. Using the IPCC’s vulnerability framework, we assessed the ecological vulnerability of Nepal’s mountain forests from 2000 to 2020 by integrating geospatial data on vegetation cover, climate, topography, and canopy structure. Results show needle-leaved open forests on steep slopes are most at risk, with 58.3% in the high-vulnerability category due to sparse canopy cover, low species richness, and high climate exposure. In contrast, 93.6% of broad-leaved closed forests fall in the low-vulnerability category, supported by higher productivity, diversity, and drought tolerance. An inverse relationship emerged between canopy density and vulnerability. These findings reveal decadal and forest type-specific patterns, offering critical guidance for climate-resilient forest conservation and ecohydrological management in Nepal’s rapidly changing Himalayan landscapes.