The role of fluid migration and static stress transfer in searching connections between the May 2012 Emilia earthquakes through a fully 3D finite element modeling

Abstract

On May 20 and 29, 2012, two earthquakes struck the Emilia Romagna region (Northern Italy), with similar mechanisms. The proximity in space and time between the two events required to investigate possible triggering effects in terms of stress transfer or fluid migration. Moreover, the debate concerning fluid extraction–injection activities brought to the appointment of an International Commission (ICHESE), for evaluating relationships between the hydrocarbon exploitation and the seismic activity near the focal zone: the ICHESE conclusive report did not exclude the possibility of a triggering effect associated with explorations, although this appears not supported by robust evidences. On the other hand, there is no agreement between published papers addressing classical triggering mechanisms and in this respect an improved analysis based on 3D numerical modeling is a valuable tool to provide new insights and outcomes. To this aim, we built up a 3D model honoring the complexities of the real Earth, to retrieve the slip patterns on both the rupture planes by implementing finite element computed Green’s functions in a linear joint inversion scheme of geodetic data. Then, we inspected possible mechanisms which could have contributed to promote the second event, such as Coulomb stress transfer and natural fluid migration. Our findings suggest that both phenomena are not likely to be responsible for the May 29 earthquake, even if fluid migration was found to have a role in facilitating the rupture but without reaching hydrofracturing condition. Nevertheless a suprahydrostatic pore pressure is inferred which could have promoted the reactivation of the thrust fault.