A spatio-temporal model of homicide in El Salvador

Abstract

This paper examines the spatio-temporal evolution of homicide across the municipalities of El Salvador. It aims at identifying both temporal trends and spatial clusters that may contribute to the formation of time-stable corridors lying behind a historically (recurrent) high homicide rate. The results from this study reveal the presence of significant clusters of high homicide municipalities in the Western part of the country that have remained stable over time, and a process of formation of high homicide clusters in the Eastern region. The results show an increasing homicide trend from 2002 to 2013 with significant municipality-specific differential trends across the country. The data suggests that links may exist between the dynamics of homicide rates, drug trafficking and organized crime.