Is irregular migration responsive to recent German asylum policy adjustments?

Abstract

We investigate the extent to which asylum policies that aim to deter individuals from migrating irregularly in fact do so. We specifically consider effects of Germany's 2023 asylum policy adjustments, which include accelerated asylum decision processes, the prospect of asylum processing outside of Europe, the introduction of a payment card to replace cash benefits, and an extended waiting period for native-level benefits. To estimate the effects of these policy measures on irregular migration intent, we implement a conjoint experiment with 989 men aged 18–40 in four cities in Senegal, a country where irregular migration to Europe is highly salient. Offshoring the asylum process substantially lowers irregular migration intentions, and extending the waiting time for native-level benefits only has a small effect on intent. Neither reducing asylum processing times nor replacing cash benefits with a payment card alters intentions. Our study does not resolve political and normative questions concerning these policies.