Simulation Analysis on Flight Delay Propagation under Different Network Configurations

Abstract

This paper investigates flight delay propagation in air transportation networks (ATNs) by considering both network structures and airport operation performance. An airport susceptible-infected-recovered (ASIR) model is established based on the mechanism of epidemic spreading, where the focus is on the impact of the infection rate in order to properly map and understand the probability of delay propagation. Different network configurations are abstracted under complex network theory, in which the ASIR model can be simulated upon. The simulation results show that the original airport traffic, airport connection and the level of airport turnaround services play important roles in influencing delay propagation in different airports. In addition, changes of network structure such as the emerging of secondary hubs can also influence the delay propagation.