Predicting Multidimensional Poverty with Machine Learning Algorithms: An Open Data Source Approach Using Spatial Data

Abstract

This paper presents a methodology to estimate the multidimensional poverty index using spatial data at the street block level. The data used in this study were obtained from Open Street Maps and ESA’s land use cover, which are freely available sources of spatial information. The study employs five machine-learning algorithms, including Catboost, Lightboost, and Random Forest, to estimate the multidimensional poverty index with spatial granularity. The results indicate that these models achieve promising performance in predicting poverty levels in Medellín, Colombia. The results showed that the Random Forest algorithm achieved the highest performance, with an MAE of 0.07504. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of the multidimensional poverty estimate was highly correlated with the true values of the distribution. This work contributes to predicting multidimensional poverty by demonstrating the potential of machine learning algorithms to utilize accessible spatial data. By providing evidence of the feasibility of estimating poverty levels at a granular spatial level, this methodology offers a powerful tool for policymakers to make poverty social interventions with low-cost evidence. Furthermore, this study has important implications for poverty eradication efforts in developing countries, where access to reliable data remains challenging.