Choking under the pressure of competition: A complete statistical investigation of pressure kicks in the NFL, 2000–2017

Abstract

In the NFL, kickers play a special role in determining the outcome of a match. There is a significant body of literature attributing the success of kicks to observed environmental and situational factors. However, the significance of these is not subject to agreement. In this study, we synthesize the deterministic and stochastic models based on data from the 2000–2017 NFL seasons to identify significant conditions associated with “choking.” This study’s empirical findings focus on integrating the statistical evidence on causality of skill and performance, and the interpretation of observed and unobserved heterogeneity of kicks, on the intervention effect of the new extra-point rule in the NFL since 2015, and on providing an in-depth evaluation of the impact of competition pressure.