HIV / AIDS Epidemic in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: Current Level of Key Indicators and Projection by 2030

Abstract

Since 2015, the Democratic Republic of Congo has subscribed to the global goal of eliminating HIV / AIDS as a major public health problem by 2030. However, there is a lack of evidence on the current level of key indicators of the epidemic in the country. In another hand, no study has yet explored the extent to which the country could meet the 2030 target. This study aimed to: (i) determine the current level of key indicators of the HIV / AIDS epidemic in the DRC; and (ii) assess whether the DRC could achieve the goal of eliminating HIV / AIDS as a major public health problem by the end of 2030. For the country as a whole and for 24 of its 26 provinces, we performed: (1) a trend analysis of HIV / AIDS surveillance data; and (2) projections of key indicators of the epidemic by 2030 on Spectrum software. In 2017, the DRC is experiencing a generalized epidemic of HIV / AIDS (national prevalence of 1.0%, 97.5%CI: 0.85% - 1.14%), which is poorly expansive (national incidence of 6, 97, 5%IC: 5 - 7 new infections per 10 000 person-years of observation). Ten of its 26 provinces have so far experienced a concentrated epidemic. From 2017 to 2030, HIV prevalence will decline for the country as a whole, falling below 1% by 2018 and reaching 0.76% by 2030. The incidence will experience the same overall declining trend. Nine provinces appear to be driving the epidemic. The DRC should target intensively the nine driving provinces of the epidemic and some of its key determinants, in order to fulfill the goal of reducing the HIV / AIDS epidemic to a non-major public health concern by 2030.