Photosynthesis in silico. Understanding complexity from molecules to ecosystems

Abstract

Green (International Journal of Forecasting, 18, 321-344) considers one method of testing the predictive value of game theory for conflict situations, and finds that role-playing does better. I discuss a second method, one that combines game theory and role-playing. This method has already been used with success to solve practical business problems. I argue game theory will have to play a critical part if role-playing is to be reliable for forecasting conflict outcomes. Existing research that combines game theory and experimental economics holds important lessons for the design of role-playing exercises. (C) 2002 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.