Modeling of energy sustainability at the regional level (SDG 7 achievement in the Russian federation)

Abstract

The aim of the article is to develop proposals for modeling of energy sustainability at the regional level. Analysis of the approaches used in the theoretical studies and practice of quantitative determination of energy sustainability at the regional level shows that it is most advisable to form a comprehensive methodology for energy assessment, which includes a comparison (analogy) method, as well as regulatory, balance, and design methods. The normative method is used to determine the sum of element-by-element energy potentials calculated for technological processes in all sectors of the region's economy. The comparison method is based on the determination of regional energy sustainability by its value in the base region and the ratio of energy consumption in a region under consideration and the source region. In the consequence of the study, it was revealed that there is no shared opinion regarding the energy sustainability modeling at the regional level. Estimates of planned commissioning of generating capacities are characterized by considerable inconsistency. There is a lack of coordination between energy development programs as an infrastructure sector and the regional economy. It is proved that the coordination of interests is possible if considering energy sustainability as an independent system. In this case, the excess capacities will act as competitors, which are focused on generating income. It is determined that the development degree of network infrastructure in the region determines the possibility of using excess capacity in power systems.