Potential predictability and extended range prediction of Indian summer monsoon breaks

Abstract

Extended range prediction (two to three weeks in advance) of Indian summer monsoon active (rainy) and break (dry) phases are of great importance for agricultural planning and water management. Using daily rainfall and circulation data for 23 years, a fundamental property of the monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (ISO's) is discovered and shown that the potential predictability limit (∼20 days) of monsoon breaks is significantly higher than that for active conditions (∼10 days). An empirical model for prediction of monsoon ISO's is then constructed and feasibility of useful prediction of monsoon breaks up to 18 days in advance is demonstrated.