Assessing the suitability of pioneer species for secondary forest restoration in Benin in the context of global climate change

Abstract

In this study, species distribution modelling (SDM) was applied to the management of secondary forests in Benin. This study aims at identifying suitable areas where the use of candidate pioneer species, such as Lonchocarpus sericeus and Anogeissus leiocarpa, could be targeted to ensure at low cost, currently and in the context of global climate change, fast reconstitution of secondary forests and disturbed ecosystems and the recovery of their biodiversity. Using occurrence records from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) website and current environmental data, the factors that affected the distribution of the species were assessed in West Africa. The models developed in MaxEnt and R software for West Africa only, for both species, showed good predictive power with AUC > 0.80 and AUC ratios well above 1.5. The results were projected in future climate at the horizon 2055, using AfriClim data under rcp4.5 and rcp8.5 and suggested a little reduction in the range of L. sericeus and any variation for A. leiocarpa. The potential distribution of the two species indicated that they could be used for vegetation restoration activities both now and in the mid-21st century. Improvement are needed through the use of complementary data, the extension to others species and the assessment of uncertainties related to these predictions.