Modelling the effect of screening on the spread of HIV infection in a population with variable inflow of infective immigrants

Abstract

This paper examines the combined effects of screening and variable inflow of infective immigrants on the spread of HIV/AIDS (human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome) in a population of varying size. A nonlinear deterministic mathematical model for the problem is proposed and analysed qualitatively using the stability theory of differential equations. The results show that the reproductive number R0>1 as the rate of inflow of infective immigrants increases leading to persistence of the disease in the population. However, the presence of screening greatly reduces the spread of HIV/AIDS. Numerical simulation of the model is implemented to investigate the sensitivity of certain key parameters on the spread of the disease. © 2011 Academic Journals.