Modeling local distributed solar energy potential: a case study from Virginia, USA

Abstract

In this paper, we use GIS analysis to estimate potential distributed solar PV capacity and solar electricity generation in a suburban neighborhood in Virginia, United States. Using a combination of LiDAR and solar insolation data, we find that 37% of rooftop space in the study area would receive sufficient solar insolation to support a distributed solar (DPV) system. Applying conservative assumptions, we estimate that nearly 19 MW (AC) of distributed rooftop PV could realistically be installed, providing 28% of the study area’s estimated annual electricity demand. These findings provide evidence of the significant untapped potential of DPV, and support the need for streamlined permitting processes and other incentives to reduce soft costs and facilitate DPV installation. We also discuss opportunities for merging planning and engineering research to support targeted utilization of DPV in locations where it can best support distribution grid operations, such as on commercial sector buildings in particular.