Imaging-Derived Biomarkers Integrated with Clinical and Laboratory Values Predict Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Liver Transplantation

Abstract

Purpose: To investigate the prognostic value of computed tomography (CT) derived imaging biomarkers in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after liver transplantation (LT) and develop a predictive nomogram model. Patients and Methods: This retrospective study included 178 patients with histopathologically confirmed HCC who underwent liver transplantation between 2007 and 2021 at the two academic liver centers. We evaluated dedicated imaging features from baseline multiphase contrast-enhanced CT supplemented by several clinical findings and laboratory parameters. Time-to-recurrence was estimated by Kaplan–Meier analysis. Univariable Cox proportional hazard regression and multivariable Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression were used to assess independent prognostic factors for recurrence. A nomogram model was then built based on the independent factors selected through LASSO regression, to predict the probabilities of HCC recurrence at one, three, and five years. Results: The rate of HCC recurrence after LT was 17.4% (31 of 178). The LASSO analysis revealed six independent predictors associated with an elevated risk of tumor recurrence. These predictors included the presence of peritumoral enhancement, the presence of over three tumor lesions, the largest tumor diameter greater than 3 cm, serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels exceeding 400 ng/mL, and the presence of a tumor capsule. Conversely, a history of bridging therapies was found to be correlated with a reduced risk of HCC recurrence. In addition, Kaplan-Meier curves showed patients with irregular margin, satellite nodules, or small lesions displayed shorter time-to-recurrence. Our nomogram demonstrated good performance, yielding a C-index of 0.835 and AUC values of 0.86, 0.88, and 0.85 for the predictions of 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year TTR, respectively. Conclusion: Imaging parameters derived from baseline contrast-enhanced CT showing malignant behavior and aggressive growth patterns, along with serum AFP and history of bridging therapies, show potential as biomarkers for predicting HCC recurrence after transplantation.