Simulation modeling of changes in demand for rail transportation

Abstract

The purpose of the paper is to justify the use of the intersectoral balance model for forecasting the demand for rail transportation in the face of significant changes in commodity markets. The theoretical basis of the study is the algebraic theory of the analysis of the input-output model. The methodology is based on the balance method. The modeling procedure comes down to solving a system of linear equations in which the coefficients are cost coefficients for production. The modeling information base includes scenario conditions for forecasting the socio-economic development of 40 industries and activities for which rail transportation is of decisive importance, and whose share in the structure of the GDP of Russia for the period until 2036 will change slightly. The main results of the study are: the implemented process of modeling demand for rail transportation, including a basic simulation of the intersectoral balance of the Russian economy for 2016, a predicted simulation model of demand for the period until 2030. An assessment was made of a long-term change in demand for rail transport services, taking into account structural changes affecting the activities of the main sectors of the national economy, which products are changing interspecific competition, the emergence of new product markets and digital technologies.