The volatility of export amount & the number of exports of Korea’s major exporting countries

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to predict future directions and trends in the number of exports, export amount, the number of imports and import amount of major exporting countries in Korea. Major exporting countries selected China, the United States, Vietnam, Hong Kong, Japan and Taiwan as export orders. The data required for this study was collected from the trade statistics of the Korea Customs Service. The analysis period for major exporting countries is 225 months from January 2000 to September 2018, using monthly and annual data. Monthly data were model, index and numerical analysis using Excel, e-views and SPSS. In the growth rate analysis, Vietnam showed 780% the number of exports, 3,000% exports amount, 2,400% the number of imports and 6,200% imports amount. For the past 19 years, Vietnam has shown the highest growth rate compared to other countries. The correlation between the number of exports, export amount, the number of imports and import amount showed that the value of export amount and import amount was as high as 0.960. In the monthly regression analysis of exports, China, USA, Hong Kong, Japan and Taiwan were statistically significant at t-statistic and p-value (≤ 0.01) except for Vietnam. Analysis results, this study shows that Vietnam, Hong Kong and Taiwan have relatively higher growth and volatility than the US and Japan in the past export market. Southeast Asian markets including Vietnam, Hong Kong and Taiwan are emerging as new export markets. In addition, Korea needs more attention to Asian markets including India, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia and Philippines. It is necessary to diversify the export market and the import market because the export amount and the import amount are increasing in proportion to each other. This paper will help diversify Korea’s major exporting and importing countries in the future.