Correction of wind power forecasting by considering wind speed forecast error

Abstract

With the high penetration level of wind power in power systems, wind power generation is necessary to participate in the generation scheduling to balance supply and demand. If a power system operator wants wind power generation to participate in generation scheduling, wind power should be forecasted accurately. Varying weather conditions constantly subject wind power generation to uncertainty and variability, making the determination of generating capacity difficult for system operators. Wind power forecasting should be corrected to reduce errors of generation scheduling. This study proposes a method to correct wind power forecasting by considering wind speed forecast error, which is represented in normal distribution. The biased mean of wind power forecast error is calculated using the analytical approach for wind speed forecast. The proposed method corrects wind power forecast by subtracting the biased mean from the wind power forecast error.