How do citizens define and value the rule of law? A conjoint experiment in Germany and Poland

Abstract

Democratic and rule of law backsliding are observed worldwide, but in Europe these tendencies are particularly salient as they endanger the entire European Union's cohesion. Poland, along with Hungary, has for years been perceived as a member state where the rule of law was in alarming decline. We attempt to understand what enabled this backsliding and to what extent differences in public perception of the rule of law can shed light on this issue. Specifically, we ask whether in Poland, as compared to Germany, the public values the rule of law less and whether it has a different understanding of what the rule of law is. Differences in appreciation of the rule of law could explain why it has been under threat in Poland, which otherwise successfully transitioned to a market economy. Interestingly, our quota representative conjoint survey experiments suggest that Germans and Poles value and define the rule of law very similarly. We show that the rule of law is valued much less by respondents who support populist parties and those who are less educated and more religious. Differences in valuation of the rule of law are determined by personal characteristics, rather than general differences between the two countries.