Prediction of road traffic accidents using a combined model based on IOWGA operator

Abstract

Traffic accident prediction plays a important role in reducing the likelihood of traffic accidents and improving the management levels of traffic safety. A new combined prediction model based on the induced ordered weighted geometric average (IOWGA) operator was proposed. This new model combines the GM(1,1) model and the Verhulst model with changeable weight coefficients of each single model. A combined model based on the optimal weighted(OW) method is also presented for comparison. An example is given with the number of deaths by road traffic accidents in China from 2003 to 2008. The results indicate that the proposed combined model is better than the other three models.