Towards a framework for evaluating the costs and benefits of simulation modelling in healthcare

Abstract

Over the years, simulation modelling has provided many benefits for healthcare systems; however, its uptake level remains quite low. Despite its many benefits, simulation modelling is considered expensive and a luxury. It is generally suggested that simulation modelling is ultimately cost-effective, but there are few methods for proving such. Therefore, in this paper, we investigate the cost and benefits of using simulation modelling in healthcare and explore the viability of developing a framework that will allow stakeholders to evaluate their investment when using simulation modelling. We used 18 case studies to identify modelling costs and benefits when designing healthcare facilities and services. In a field lacking data, we report on modelling costs, including hidden items, such as stakeholders and decisions. Further, we report on benefit realisation and show how estimates of net social benefits and benefit-to-cost ratios may be made, identifying where further research is needed. In all cases, the benefits exceeded the costs—typically by factors of 10, often by factors of 100, and occasionally by more than 1000.