Individual-based computational model used to explain 2009 pandemic H1N1 in rural campus community

Abstract

In the beginning of fall semester 2009, over 2,000 students contacted the student health service at Washington State University to report symptoms of influenza. The epidemic in Pullman, WA made national news, and many speculated on the severity and extent of the disease spread. Analysis of data from the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 epidemic in Pullman, WA offers an opportunity to gain insights into characteristics of this rural campus community outbreak. In this study, an individual-based stochastic epidemic simulation model was used with the data to estimate infection parameters and make projections of the number of symptomatic individuals that would result given a variety of plausible scenarios. The parameters that were estimated include the number of individuals initially infected and the basic reproductive ratio (R0). The model was then used to predict the magnitude of infection with vaccination, isolation and quarantine. The results show that the best single intervention strategy is vaccination, and the reduction in infection is greatest when vaccination, isolation and quarantine are used simultaneously. © 2013 World Scientific Publishing Company.