Building Scenarios on the Regional Integration in Eurasia along the New Silk Road

Abstract

Regions are gaining importance as globalization struggles with local sustainable implementation. Thus, regional integration assumes economic development based on transnational cooperation, including regionalization and regionalism. The New Silk Road (NSR) offers a set of policies (including the Belt and Road Initiative) for regional integration that faces challenges in geopolitics and geoeconomics with problems at the local and regional scale, especially along its core corridor, namely, the Eurasian Land Bridge. Therefore, we focus on the NSR implementation by examining the scenarios for future regional integration along the NSR in Eurasia. Using a stepwise scenario building method, including a literature review and qualitative interviews, four scenarios are outlined to explore regional cooperation and the impacts: from (1) withdrawal/reduction of the NSR towards (2) solo efforts by Chinese shareholders, (3) corridor-integration and finally, (4) deep regional integration. This study examines the interface between economic geography and international relations.