Cost-benefit analysis of carbon emission mitigation policies for urban passenger transport in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

Abstract

Passenger transport accounts for a high proportion of the total traffic volume in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, and its emission reduction potential is a key factor affecting the peaking of traffic- related carbon emissions. This study established the urban passenger transport system model in the BTH region based on agent modeling and simulation method. It then simulated consumer's travel behavior under different scenarios of urban passenger transport carbon emission reduction policies in the region, and evaluated the environmental benefits and economic costs of various carbon emission reduction policies and their impact on carbon peaking. The research results show that: (1) The policy of fuel efficiency improvement of passenger vehicles is the only policy scenario that can achieve the peaking of carbon emissions of urban passenger transport in the BTH region by 2030 with relatively low carbon emission reduction cost. Tianjin is expected to achieve the peaking of carbon emissions first, followed by Beijing, and Hebei Province will be the last. (2) The carbon emission reduction cost of public transport promotion policy is relatively high, especially in Hebei Province. Although the policy can also achieve the peaking of carbon emissions of urban passenger transport in Beijing Municipality and Hebei Province, it fails to achieve the goal of carbon emission peaking in Tianjin Municipality. (3) The transport congestion charge policy alone would not achieve the goal of carbon emission peaking, and it needs to be implemented in combination with other policies. To achieve the goal of passenger transport carbon emission peaking in the BTH region, it is necessary to continuously promote the policy of improving the fuel efficiency of passenger vehicles. It is also possible to adopt a combination of policies such as subsidies for new energy vehicles, public transport promotion, and transport congestion charges to reduce the economic cost of emission reduction.