The resilience of nodes in critical mineral resources supply chain networks under emergent risk: Take nickel products as an example

Abstract

As an important material basis for national industrial development, critical mineral resources global trade network is frequently impacted by emergent risks, which pose a threat to the resource supply security of import-dependent countries. From the perspective of the global trade network and the input- output relationships of the industrial chain and based on the multi-layer complex network theory, this study modeled the global trade network of critical mineral resources as well as the risk transmission mechanism for emergent risk simulation, and proposed a resilience measurement for nodes in the network using the results obtained from multiple risk scenarios simulation. Taking six products in the nickel mineral resource industrial chain as example, using the global trade data of 2018 for empirical analysis. The research shows that: (1) The import structure of Nickel resources in China is extremely unbalanced, causing great potential risk to the supply security of nickel resources in China. China's demand for nickel ore, nickel matte and other upstream industrial chain products is rigid, and the price sensitivity is low. (2) The price fluctuation caused by risk has no significant affect on China's import loss, while the most influential factor on risk resilience is resource competitiveness, which is directly related to import structure, export share of risk sources, and the ability of national industry to transfer additional costs. Due to the difference in competitiveness, the Philippines will cause greater supply risk of nickel resources to China than Indonesia. (3) The same country has different risk resilience in the face of different sources of risk. When the sources of risk are Indonesia and the Philippines, the loss of nickel resource imports to China will increase by 1.74% and 1.77% when the risk scale increases by 1%. China is less resilient in the face of emergent risks from the Philippines. The evaluation of single country’s risk resilience in critical mineral resource supply chain network is of significance to the control of macroscopical resource supply situation and the pertinence of resource policies.