Are the geographic disparities in U.S. violent crime rising?

Abstract

Inequality in economic and social outcomes across U.S. regions has grown in recent decades. The economic theory of crime predicts that this increased variability would raise geographic disparities in violent crime. Instead, I find that geographic disparities in homicide rates decreased. Moreover, these same decades saw decreases in the geographic disparities in policing, incarceration, and the share of the population that is African American. Thus, changes in policing, incarcerations, and racial composition could have led to a decrease in inequality in homicide rates. Moreover, the joint provision of law enforcement by local, state, and federal authorities may have reduced the impact of economic distress on violent crime.