Improving Typhoon-Induced Rainfall Forecasts Based on Similar Typhoon Tracks

Abstract

Typhoons pose severe threats to coastal regions through destructive winds and extreme rainfall, with rainfall-induced flooding often causing more casualties and economic damage than wind damage alone. Accurate precipitation forecasting is therefore paramount for effective disaster risk management. This study proposes a trajectory-based framework for predicting cumulative rainfall from typhoon events, based on the premise that cyclones with similar tracks yield comparable precipitation due to topographic interactions. An extensive dataset of typhoons over East Asia (1979–2022) is analyzed, and two new similarity metrics—the Kernel Density Similarity Index (KDSI) and the Comprehensive Index (CI)—are introduced to quantify track resemblance. Their predictive skill is benchmarked against existing indices, including fuzzy C-means, convex hull area, and triangle mesh methods. Optimal performance is achieved using an ensemble of 13 analogous cyclones, which minimizes root-mean-square error (RMSE). Validation across a large sample demonstrates that the proposed model overcomes limitations of earlier approaches, providing a robust and efficient tool for forecasting typhoon-induced rainfall.