Uncertainty in gap filling and estimating the annual sum of carbon dioxide exchange for the desert Tugai forest, Ebinur Lake Basin, Northwest China

Abstract

In most eddy covariance (EC) studies, carbon flux measurements have a high defect rate for a variety of reasons. Obtaining the annual sum of carbon dioxide exchange requires imputation of data gaps with high precision and accuracy. This study used five methods to fill the gaps in carbon flux data and estimate the total annual carbon dioxide exchange of the Tugai forest in the arid desert ecosystem of Ebinur Lake Basin, Northwest China. The Monte Carlo method was used to estimate the random error and bias caused by gap filling. The results revealed that (1) there was a seasonal difference in the friction velocity threshold of nighttime flux, with values in the growing season and non-growing season of 0.12 and 0.10 m/s, respectively; (2) the five gap-filling methods explained 77-84% of the data variability in the fluxes, and the random errors estimated by these methods were characterized by non-normality and leptokurtic heavy tail features, following the Laplacian (or double-exponential) distribution; (3) estimates of the annual sum of carbon dioxide exchange using the five methods at the study site in 2015 ranged from -178.25 to -155.21 g C m-2 year-1, indicating that the Tugai forest in the Ebinur Lake Basin is a net carbon sink. The standard deviation of the total annual carbon dioxide exchange sums estimated by the five different methods ranged from 3.15 to 19.08 g C m-2 year-1, with bias errors ranging from -13.69 to 14.05 g C m-2 year-1. This study provides a theoretical basis for the carbon dioxide exchange and carbon source/sink assessment of the Tugai forest in an arid desert ecosystem. In order to explore the functioning of the Tugai forest at this site, a greater understanding of the underlying ecological mechanisms is necessary.