The Impacts of High-Speed Railway on Urban GDP and Its Agglomeration: Evidence from China

Abstract

This study develops difference-in-differences (DID) models to examine the direct and indirect effects of high-speed railway (HSR) operation on the urban gross domestic product (GDP) and its agglomeration. The period from 2010 to 2019 is selected as the study period, and 30 HSR-operating cities across the Chinese mainland are chosen as the study sites to be investigated. Individual fixed effects and time fixed effects are introduced to panel data models to account for the heterogeneities between cities and the endogeneities of explanatory variables. Estimation results suggest that the operation of HSR can improve the development of the urban GDP by accelerating the migration of population to HSR-operating cities, promoting the upgrading of the urban industrial structure, and improving the level of urban scientific research. Moreover, the level of urban economic agglomeration can also be improved as a result of HSR. However, the ability of HSR-promoting economic development is more significant in cities with more developed economies. Therefore, when formulating a sensible plan for the development of HSR, policymakers should prioritize the construction of HSR in more developed cities.