Simulations of technology-induced and crisis-led stochastic and chaotic fluctuations in higher education processes: A model and a case study for performance and expected employment

Abstract

This paper presents a simple model of the provision of higher educational services that considers and exemplifies nonlinear, stochastic, and potentially chaotic processes. I use the methods of system dynamics to simulate these processes in the context of a particular sociologically interesting case, namely that of the Turkish higher education sector during the recent global economic crisis. I undertake simulations for two variables, namely for the quality-adjusted performance and the technology-induced expected employment. Simulations for the quality-adjusted performance display stochastic fluctuations around a modestly rising deterministic trend. Chaotic performance trajectories are shown to be possible for certain parameter values; however, given the historical experience and observed current tendencies in higher education in Turkey, they appear to be highly unlikely. Simulations for expected employment indicate that increases in the levels of technology utilization in education could lead to improved perceptions of employment prospects and potentially help to increase the level of employment in the economy.