Linking climate change to soil loss estimation in the kosi river basin, India

Abstract

This study assessed the spatio-temporal variability of soil loss based on rainfall–runoff erosivity in the context of climate change in the Kosi river basin. The observed rainfall data (1985–2017) were used for past and present analyses, and the projected rainfall data (2020–2100) interpolated for various general circulation models (GCMs) were used for future analysis. The results of rainfall analysis for the projected period show a maximum percentage variation of 26.2% for a particular GCM and an average of 9.4% increase in the rainfall data from all selected GCMs considering three representative concentration pathways (RCPs). We also evaluated the implications of change in the soil loss due to changes in the rainfall pattern and crop management factor for three time slices. The results for the projected time period showed a concomitant increase in the average soil loss of 13.03–10.39% with respect to the baseline. The average soil loss results for the time period of 2020–2100 are also compared with the average soil loss for each RCP scenario and found very meager changes in the area of soil erosion. The results due to climate change aid in prioritizing the areas with suitable conservation support practices.