Uzbekistan’s Development Experiment: An Assessment of Karimov’s Economic Legacy

Abstract

Uzbekistan’s unique post-independence experiment with development was led by Islam Karimov until his sudden death in September 2016. Despite defying international advice on structural reforms, under Karimov’s rule, Uzbekistan achieved an average annual growth rate of 5% in the period 1996–2016, which was particularly impressive (over 8%) in 2004–2016. Karimov also left behind strong macroeconomic fundamentals for his successor. Since taking over the presidency in December 2016, Shavkat Mirziyoyev has introduced wide-ranging reforms, creating an impression of a de facto start to transition in Uzbekistan. This study analyses Karimov’s economic legacy and assesses whether it has enabled or hindered the developmental targets set by his successor.